![]() Professor Pagel said: “BA.2.86 (“Pirola”) is as different from current variants as Omicron was from Delta, meaning it might be able to better evade existing immunity and so health agencies across the world are watching it very closely.” There is no evidence yet that Pirola is any more severe than existing variants or how widely it could spread.īut is is certainly a significant source of concern among scientists. It has been flagged by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as a “variant under monitoring”. It is not classified as a “variant of concern” but scientists have said that it carries more than 30 mutations compared to the the strain it evolved from, which could help it to evade immunity built up from vaccines and previous infections, and has appeared in several countries in individuals without travel history. The new variant, known as BA.2.86, or Pirola, is believed to have evolved from Omicron‘s BA.2 subvariant which was responsible for case numbers rising sharply back in early 2022. Simple LFD testing, support to isolate and filtering masks, especially in healthcare settings would be greatly enabling.” What is the new variant and why are scientists worried? “Improving air quality is key to the control of an airborne virus, and this must be prioritised alongside other laudable hygiene methods. Professor Steve Griffin of Leeds University said: “There is no reason that freedoms should be restricted, or that life can’t resume as a new normal, where infection resilient environments and comprehensive vaccine strategies ensure that infection is less likely for all. But I don’t think it will happen.”īut in January this year, ministers ruled out any national lockdowns or school closures even as the winter hospital admissions crisis took hold. I’ve got to be absolutely frank with you, there could be a new variant more deadly, there could be a variant that affects children, that we really need to contain, I’m not going to take any options off the table. He said: “I think it would be irresponsible of any leader in any democracy to say that they’re going to rule out something that can save lives. ![]() When Boris Johnson launched his Living with Covid plan in February 2022, he didn’t rule out lockdowns in the future. Now I think they would have more harm than benefit and so I could not see myself supporting their reintroduction, unless of course a new super virulent variant appeared which I think is very unlikely.” In the first year of the pandemic I think such restrictions did indeed have more benefits than harms. In public health any intervention should have on balance more benefits than harms. “On the other hand lockdowns do have significant negative impacts on public health. “You could see this in China last Christmas when omicron was spreading most rapidly before restrictions were eased. They were pretty effective in the early months of the pandemic but there was evidence that even by the second wave (alpha variant) they were not as effective as in the first wave. Professor Paul Hunter, of University of East Anglia, added: “Lockdowns are a blunt tool for controlling pandemic spread. Hospital admissions have increased, but have been flat for the last couple of weeks and peaking at a lower level than previous troughs – with an average of 300 daily admissions compared to 450 to 650 daily admissions. Professor Christina Pagel, of University College London, told i: “I think the chance of another lockdown is somewhere between ‘extremely unlikely’ and ‘vanishingly unlikely’. While it’s difficult to say for certain that seems extremely unlikely. Meanwhile, the latest UKHSA figures found that the overall Covid hospital admission rate during the middle of August was 3.0 per 100,000 population, an increase from 1.97 per 100,000 from the start of the month. ![]() However, cases are expected to remain far below peaks of 300,000 daily symptomatic cases seen in the spring of 2022. By the start of August they had risen to about 50,000 and by Tuesday this week (29 August) they had jumped to 85,321, in large part because of waning immunity from vaccination and previous infection.Īs the cooling weather forces people back indoors and children return to school, cases are expected to keep rising in the coming weeks, as is normal for viruses at this time of year.
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